摘要
流域径流受诸多因素影响,变化复杂,仅凭观测站统计数据难以发现其演变规律。以混沌理论为基础,以鄱阳湖入湖外洲站、李家渡站和渡峰坑站的月径流时间序列为研究对象详细说明了求取时间序列中混沌特征数的方法。首先利用C-C方法选取相空间重构参数即时间延迟τ和嵌入维数m,在此基础上进行相空间重构,采用G-P关联积分法计算关联维数和Rosenstein小数据量法计算最大Lypanuov指数。结果表明鄱阳湖入湖外洲站、李家渡站和渡峰坑站的月径流序列的饱和关联维数非整数,同时最大Lyapunov指数也为正数,这充分说明鄱阳湖入湖外洲站、李家渡站和渡峰坑站的月径流序列均具有明显的混沌特征。而且通过最大Lyapunov指数和关联维数的计算表明鄱阳湖入湖的外洲站月径流复杂程度最大,混沌特性最强,对初值的敏感性最强,李家渡站次之,渡峰坑站最小。
In the paper,the chaotic characteristics of hydrological time series from the stations which entering into Poyang lake basin were analyzed.In order to make full use of the abundant evolvement information contained in the monthly runoff series from 1955~2001 on Waizhou,Lijiadu and Dufengkeng stations,the method of C-C was used to select the lag time τ and the phase space of dimensions m.The main quantitative indices such as saturated correlation dimension and the maximum Lyapunov exponent of the monthly runoff series,which could be taken as the chaos features of the hydrology system,were calculated.The saturated correlation dimension was estimated by G-P method,and maximal Lyapuonv exponent was calculated by Rosenstein method.The calculated results indicated that monthly runoff time series of the Waizhou,Lijiadu and Dufengkeng stations were all non-integers.At the same time,the maximum Lyapunov exponents gained from the datum were all positive numbers,which sufficiently showed that the runoff system of Waizhou,Lijiadu and Dufengkeng stations had fractal characteristics and chaotic characteristics.The saturated correlation dimension and the maximum Lyapunov exponent of the monthly runoff series showed that the monthly runoff series was most complex at Waizhou station,the Lijiadu station was secondary,and the Dufenkeng station was least complex.
出处
《长江流域资源与环境》
CAS
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第5期540-545,共6页
Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin
基金
鄱阳湖湿地与流域研究教育部重点实验室(江西师范大学)开放基金(PK2008009)
