摘要
选取2003年1月到2010年3月的全国社会消费品零售总额数据,运用小波分析及Mat-lab,SPSS软件,分析了中国近几年社会消费品发展的变化趋势,用小波方法对原始数据进行消噪、阈值化处理后进行重构,使得消噪后数据更能反映其本质及变化规律,用AR IMA时间序列模型进行建模预测,并作出了实证分析.
With the rapid development of the national economy, the Chinese people＇s consciousness of consumption has gradually strengthened, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increase steadily. By adopting the wavelet analysis for the retail sales of consumer goods from January 2003 to March 2010, and MATLAB and SPSS software, this research analyzes the trend of consumer goods in China in recent years. By using the methods of de-noising, threshold processing and reconstruction of the original data, the research reveals better the essence and the changing rules of the data, and predicts the results by using the time series ARIMA model.
出处
《云南民族大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2011年第3期185-189,共5页
Journal of Yunnan Minzu University:Natural Sciences Edition
基金
国家自然科学基金(11061039)
关键词
消费品零售总额预测
小波分析
消噪
ARIMA
prediction of the total retail sales of consumer goods
wavelet analysis
de-noising
ARIMA
