摘要
为减少化工事故频发造成严重人员伤亡及财产损失,在分析危化品泄漏事故类型的基础上,从事故发生概率和事故后果两方面提出危化品泄漏事故风险评估模型。以中毒事故为例,对重庆长寿化工园区内某企业一液氨储罐进行风险评估。基于概率模型计算中毒事故概率,结果表明该储罐发生泄漏引起中毒的概率较小;数值模拟结果显示:影响范围随时间的增加而增大。根据损失模型计算事故经济损失,结果表明此类事故经济损失中人员伤亡损失所占比重较大,随泄漏时间的增加,总经济损失也随之增加,泄漏60 min时的经济损失是30 min的2.41倍,泄漏90 min时的经济损失为30 min的3.14倍。加强应急管理,提高应急响应能力,可大幅度降低经济损失。
In order to reduce the catastrophic casualties and property loss caused by frequent chemical accidents,risk assessment model of leakage accident are put forward based on the analysis of the accident type of dangerous chemicals leakage.Taking poisoning accidents as an example,risk assessment is made for a liquid ammonia tank in Changshou Chemical Industrial Park,and the leakage probability is calculated by the use of probability model.Results show that the probability of tank leakage is small;numerical simulation shows that the influenced area will enlarge with time;Accident loss calculated by loss model shows that the casualty loss accounts for a big part.The economic loss increases with time.The loss produced by 30 minutes of leakage is 0.41 times lower than that by 60 minutes,and 0.32 times lower than that by 60minutes.Good emergency management and response capability is very helpful to reduce economic loss.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第2期165-170,共6页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金创新团队(50921063)
关键词
泄漏事故
风险评估
概率函数法
经济损失
数值模拟
leakage accident
risk assessment
probability function technique
economic loss
numerical simulation
