摘要
2010年4季度以来,CPI同比涨幅保持高位,上游物价同比涨幅有所反弹。当前,食品价格仍存在较大上涨压力,非食品价格涨幅处于历史高位,输入性通货膨胀压力不减,对上游价格及物价总水平产生较大的压力,但物价涨幅总体可控。先行指标预警分析和动态因子模型预测分析结果表明,未来物价上涨压力可能逐步降低,但需要一个较长的过程。
Since Q4 of 2010, the year-on-year rise in the CPI has remained high and the year-on-year rise in upstream prices has rebounded. At present, there is still significant inflationary pressure for food prices, the non-food price rise is at a historic high, and the imported inflation pressure has not receded, giving rise to significant pressure on upstream prices and the general price level. However, the price rise is generally under control. Results from an early warning analysis of leading indicators and predictive analysis by dynamic factor model show that, inflationary pressure may gradually recede in future, but the process may take a long time.
