摘要
以长江上游流域6个主要控制测站实测数据为研究基础,利用Kendall秩次相关法对长江上游流域径流变化趋势进行分析。结果表明:除金沙江屏山站全年和乌江武隆站汛期径流略有增加外,其它测站控制流域内径流均有不同程度减少,其中嘉陵江北碚站、岷江高场站和沱江富顺站径流均显著减少,长江上游干流控制站寸滩站径流则微弱减少。结合GIS和DEM建立分布式小时水量平衡模型,将模型应用寸滩站1981年特大洪水过程进行模拟,模拟结果表明模型精度较高,效率系数0.982,相关系数0.955,水量平衡系数1.001,其它年份模拟效率系数均在0.85以上,水量平衡误差均在5%以内,实测流量与模拟流量吻合较好。
Kendall correlated method was employed to analyze the variations of runoff of the upper Yangtze River based on the data collected by six major stations along the main stream.The results indicated runoff of some stations decreased differently while the Jinsha River and Wujiang River were exceptional;runoff of Jialing River,Minjiang River and Tuojiang River decreased greatly and that of Cuntan Station decreased a little.Distributed hourly water balance model was established based on GIS and DEM and its application in Cuntan Station in 1981 showed accuracy with efficiency coefficient 0.982,relevant cofficient 0.955 and water amount balance coefficient 1.001.The average value of efficiency coefficient was above 0.85;the error of water balance was within 5%;there was little difference between runoff by simulation and that by survey.
出处
《重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
北大核心
2011年第2期291-294,共4页
Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science)
关键词
长江上游
Kendall秩次相关法
径流变化
分布式小时模型
径流模拟
The upper Yangtze River
Kendall correlated method
runoff change
distributed hourly water balance model
simulaton of runoff
