摘要
研究花粉预报服务经济效益评估方法,对认识专业预报服务的公众价值及其潜在的社会效益有着积极的意义。主要使用的估算方法为,针对影响天津花粉预报服务经济效益的4个重要因素,花粉预报准确率、预报服务时效性、预报服务信息的覆盖率和花粉敏感人群的预防能力,设定预报准确率(A_f)、预报时效率(T_f)、信息覆盖率(I_c)和患者的预防能力系数(P)为花粉预报服务经济效益评估因子。并且利用2000—2006年花粉监测、花粉症发病病历数据及2005—2006年包括医学变态反应专家、花粉过敏患者在内的146名人员的问卷和走访问询调查数据,对这4个因子进行估算。根据因子间的关系,建立效益系数估算模型E=A_fT_fI_cP,尝试对目前天津花粉预报服务经济效益做出了估算。结果表明:服务经济效益系数估算模型实用合理;花粉预报服务社会经济效益显著,其产生的最小经济效益每年为297万元;此估算方法具有比较可靠的参考价值。
Study on evaluation method of benefits from pollen forecast and service is significant for understanding public value of special weather forecast and service and potential benefits.Main estimating method used here is that pollen prediction accuracy（A_f）,time efficiency of service（T_f）,percentage of information coverage（I_（？））and prevention capability of pollinosis sufferers（P）,which are the important elements influencing how much the benefits is,are firstly designed to be as four factors of service benefits.Secondly,it is necessary to assess them and get four values calculated by monitoring pollen data from 2000 to 2006,pollinosis cases and investigating data coming from 146 questionnaires answered by allergy clinical immunology experts and pollinosis sufferers in Tianjin.A mathematical estimating model of benefit coefficient,E=A_f×T_f×I_（？）×P,is built based on the relationship between four factors mentioned above.Then the benefit from pollen forecast and service is figured out through the equation. Evaluation result shows that mathematical estimating model is practical and rational.And the value of total social benefits is remarkable.
出处
《气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第5期626-632,共7页
Meteorological Monthly
基金
中国气象局新技术推广项目(CMATG2008M29)资助
关键词
花粉
预报服务
评估方法
花粉症
发病率
效益估算
pollen
forecast and service
evaluating method
pollinosis
incidence of pollen allergy
benefit evaluation
