摘要
灰色预测通过对系统当前不完全明确信息的处理,发现和掌握系统的变化规律。本文应用灰色系统理论,以贵州煤炭行业的实际资料为依据,分别建立贵州煤炭年产量和百万吨死亡率的灰色预测模型,并进行残差检验,预测模型精度较高。应用建立的灰色预测模型,对贵州煤矿的安全生产状况进行预测,得出贵州煤矿年产量和百万吨死亡率的变化曲线。结果表明,贵州煤炭年产量逐步上升,百万吨死亡率逐渐下降,符合贵州煤矿行业的大体发展趋势。
Grey forecast can master the developing law of system through dealing with incomplete information of system at present.On the basis of actual data of coal mines in Guizhou province,the grey forecasting model for output per year and the grey forecasting models for death rate per million ton are built by using the grey system theory in this paper.It is shown that models which are built have good precisions.Safety and production of coal mines are forecasted by using grey forecasting models which are built,and a transformation curve of output per year and a transformation curve of death rate per million ton are obtained.The results show that output of coal has an gradual ascending,and death rate per million ton has a gradual degressive,which generally tally with development tendency of coal mines in Guizhou.
出处
《煤炭技术》
CAS
北大核心
2011年第6期115-117,共3页
Coal Technology
