摘要
温度是影响稻纵卷叶螟(Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guenee)发育、存活和繁殖的关键生态因子之一。研究温度与稻纵卷叶螟种群数量变动的关系,可为害虫种群的控制提供科学依据。本文根据稻纵卷叶螟在不同温度处理下(19.0℃,22.0℃,25.0℃,28.0℃,31.0℃)的实验种群生命表,利用系统动力学的相关理论和方法构建仿真模型,对稻纵卷叶螟实验种群的数量动态进行了模拟,在此基础上预测成虫的产卵量,并通过敏感性分析确定了成虫产卵的最适温度。结果显示,在初始卵量均为100标准粒的情况下,温度过高(>25.0℃)不利于稻纵卷叶螟实验种群低龄幼虫的生存和发育,温度过低或过高均不利于实验种群后期的发育和繁殖;随着温度的上升,稻纵卷叶螟的存活率和生殖力迅速提高,温度为25.0℃时世代存活率、次代产卵量达到最高值,分别为19.67%和1488.4头;稻纵卷叶螟成虫的最高产卵量出现在24.9℃。研究表明了系统动力学模型在害虫种群发育动态及预测方面有着良好的应用潜力。
Temperature was one of the most important factors for rice leaf roller（Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guenee） development,survival and reproduction.It was helpful for controlling the pest population to understand the relationship between temperature and rice leaf roller population.Simulation model was established by using dynamic theory based on the experimental data with different temperature treatments,and the population dynamics at different temperatures was simulated.Eggs quantity produced by adult rice leaf roller was estimated and the optimum temperature for laying eggs was determined.The results showed that high temperature（ 25.0℃） was harmful to the survival and development of young larvae,whereas both high and low temperatures were harmful to development and reproduction at late growth stage.Survival rate and individual reproduction rate increased with temperature rising,and the highest survival rate and egg production rate of adults occurred at 25.0℃,at the rate of 19.67% and 1488.4 respectively.24.9℃ was the optimum temperature for adult producing eggs.The results indicated that system dynamics model had potential application for forecasting pest population dynamics.
出处
《中国农业气象》
CSCD
2011年第2期303-310,共8页
Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology
基金
国家自然科学基金(30800134
30770403)
国家重大基础研究发展计划("973"项目)(2006CB100206)
广东省科技计划项目(2007B020709007)
关键词
稻纵卷叶螟
种群动态
温度
系统动力学
模拟模型
Rice leaf roller（Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guenee）
Population dynamics
Temperature
System dynamic
Simulation model
