摘要
本文以商品房销售均价作为房地产价格的代理变量,以货币供应量M2和7天加权同业拆借利率(IBOR)作为货币政策的代理变量,构建了两个非线性的STR模型,研究了我国2000年2月到2009年12月间的房地产价格和货币政策的非线性动态关系。研究发现,以货币供应量作为货币政策的代理变量所构建的模型解释力较强,货币政策对房地产价格存在非对称性影响,房地产价格对货币供应量的弹性仅为0.059。因此,房地产价格的变动要以大量的货币供应量的变动为代价,目前房地产市场的调控单靠货币政策是难以奏效的。
Employing the commercial housing average price as the proxy of real estate price level, the money supply M2 and weighted inter-bank rate （IBOR） as the proxy of monetary policy, this study builds two non-linear smooth transition regressions to study the non-linear dynamic relation between the housing price and the monetary policy in China from Feb. 2000 to Dec. 2009. We found that the relation between housing price and the weighted inter-bank rate is substantially weaker, money supply M2 has a notable asymmetric non-linear impact on housing price, and housing price elasticity of money supply is 0. 059, therefore housing price change must take the massive money supply change as a priee, at present real estate market regulation depend only on monetary policy is very difficult to be effective.
出处
《产业经济研究》
CSSCI
2011年第3期79-87,共9页
Industrial Economics Research
基金
2008年教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(项目编号:08JA790100)
陕西省教育厅专项科研计划项目(项目编号:08JK120)资助
关键词
货币政策
房地产
非线性
平滑转换
monetary policy
real estate
nonlinear
smooth transition
