摘要
本文运用面板平滑转换回归模型(PSTR),在非线性的框架下对政府规模与经济增长关系的渐进演变展开深入研究,并对可能引发两者关系结构性转变的"警戒政府规模"进行有效估算。研究结果表明,政府规模与经济增长之间存在着非线性关系,即随着政府规模的逐步增大,由于税负增加等因素的影响,使得政府支出增加所产生的负效应影响逐步凸显,而政府规模进一步扩大并超过警戒水平时,"过度拥挤"的政府支出对经济增长将由"促进"作用转变为"阻碍"作用。研究还发现,尽管我国政府支出增长与经济增长的关系参数值有所下降,但由于基础设施落后,公共物品与公共服务供给仍然相对不足,政府支出的增加仍有助于促进经济的进一步发展。
Using the more recently developed panel threshold regression models, this paper investigates this nonlinear relationship between government size and economic growth and estimates ＂the warning level of government size＂ that would lead to the structure change in relationship. The results indicate that there exists a nonlinear relationship between government size and economic growth, because when government size is increasing, the negative effect of government size on economic growth will be stronger due to the increasing tax, and when government size increases further and exceeds the warning level of 20. 54%, the effect of govern- ment expenditure on economic growth will change from positive to negative. We also find that although relation coefficient decreases, the increasing of government expenditure still has positive effect on promoting economic growth after reform.
出处
《数量经济技术经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第6期77-92,共16页
Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目"宏观调控中政策工具的挤出效应与挤入效应"(项目批准号:08JC790104)
2008年度广东高校人文社科育苗工程项目(项目批准号:WYM08024)
广东省优秀博士学位论文作者资助项目(项目批准号:SYBZZXM201003)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助
中山大学经济研究所基地建设经费资助
关键词
经济增长
警戒政府规模
非线性
面板平滑转换回归模型
Economic Growth
Warning Level of Government Size
Nonlinear
Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model
