摘要
发电边际成本分析是市场参与者进行电价预测和确定报价策略的基础。考虑到发电机组的随机强迫停运和负荷预测等不确定性,任何时刻的发电边际成本都是一个随机变量。详细分析了电能生产中的各种随机因素,认为发电机的工作时间和修复时间服从指数分布,系统负荷服从正态分布,燃料价格服从某种概率分布。利用蒙特卡洛方法对电能生产过程进行模拟,并在此基础上对系统短期发电边际成本进行分析。算例分析表明,该方法物理概念清晰,且便于实现,易于收敛。而且与传统的基于随机生产模拟技术的方法相比,该方法易于考虑电能生产过程中的各种随机因素,且不需要过多的负荷资料。
Analysis of marginal cost of power generation is very important for electricity price forecasting and bidding strategies.Accounting on stochastic forced outage of unit and uncertain load forecasting,marginal cost of power generation is always a stochastic variable.All stochastic elements of power production are analyzed,and it is agreed that the working time and repair time follows exponential distribution,system load follows normal distribution and fuel price follows a certain probability distribution.Then the Monte Carlo simulation is used to simulate the process of power production.From the simulating result,the system short-term marginal cost of power production is analyzed.The case study indicates this method is easily apprehensible and convergent.Comparing with other traditional methods based on technology of stochastic production simulation,this method needs less load data and easily takes account to all kinds of stochastic elements.
出处
《电力系统保护与控制》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第14期21-25,共5页
Power System Protection and Control
基金
江苏省科技基础设施建设项目(BM2009259)
南通市应用基础研究项目(k2010068)
关键词
电力市场
蒙特卡洛
边际成本
强迫停运
负荷预测
power market
Monte Carlo
marginal cost
forced outage
load demand forecast
