摘要
鉴于重大自然灾害为非孤立存在,且同一区域内发生重大自然灾害往往为有联系的灾害事件群,在掌握灾害基本信息后分析其时空对称性规律,为今后部分重大自然灾害发生趋势研究提供了参考。在时间对称性方面,主要采用可公度信息提取方法和"蝴蝶结构图"法对部分重大自然灾害进行趋势预测,案例分析结果表明:乌鲁木齐2011年发生Ms≥5.6级地震、太湖流域2011年发生洪水灾害、淮河流域2013年发生水灾信号较强。在空间对称性方面,主要应用于地震灾害趋势预测,通过对每一期地震震源点位置统计综合构建多边形结构(三角形或四边形结构)考虑其象限分布对称性。对1500年以来中国大陆17次Ms≥8级地震及云南20次Ms≥7级地震划分地震期判断,得出相邻两期地震时间间隔呈缩短趋势,地震有加快发展迹象,而未来地震空间位置指向云南东部地区。
It is difficult to predict and forecast several natural disasters currently. Major natural disasters frequently occurred synchronously. Several major natrual disasters generally occurred as one disaster incident group in a region. In this paper, we proposed the law of time--space symmetry of disasters, based on the basic information of each disaster. In the aspect of time symmetry, we carried out both the method of commensurability information extraction and Map of Butterfly Structure （MBS）. We improved the commensurability information extraction method firstly proposed by Weng Wenbo here. On the other hand, the MBS theory in the process of commensurability study for prediction was primarily proposed. From MBS, we defined the characteristic tendencies of disaster occurrence. MBS simplfied the time period of partial major natural disasters. In this paper, it is foreseen that the following events would happen in high probability in the future： the earthquake （Ms≥5.6） in Urumqi in 2011, the flood damage in Taihu Basin in 2011 and in Huaihe River Basin in 2013. In the part of spatial symmetry, MBS was mainly used in the judgement of seismic disasters. Through the statistics of earthquake focus in each period, we built polygons （triangle or quadrilateral）, and considered the symmetry in quadrant distribution, Spatial symmetry laws were revealed in this study to validate the trends manifested in a number of major natural disasters. It was observed that earthquakes occurrences in the last 500 years in China's Mainland （Ms≥8） and 20 earthquakes in Yunnan （Ms ≥7） had accelerated development tendency. The terminals of earthquakes in adjacent seismic periods became shorter. Spatial symmetry analysis indicated that seismic spatial infor- mation was more concentrated on a specific point. Thus, it is highly possible for strong earthquakes （Ms≥7） to occur in the eastern part of Yunnan in the next few years. Otherwise, these factors provided the prediction principles for several natural calamities, which was consistent with global changes.
出处
《地理研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第7期1159-1168,共10页
Geographical Research
基金
国家自然科学基金(40871052)
关键词
时空对称性
自然灾害
可公度
蝴蝶结构图法
time-space symmetry
Structure （MBS） natural disaster
commensurability
Map of Butterfly
