摘要
住房价格变化是货币政策需要关注的重要指标。本文在梳理现有文献的基础上,研究了物价稳定与房价变动的关系,发现房价是物价变动的重要原因,而M1和贷款利率是房价变动的格兰杰原因。通过进一步建立结构性VAR模型,我们发现房价受到贷款利率影响最大,而物价受到货币供应量的影响最大。针对房价与物价变动的三个场景可以采取不同的货币政策操作:1、房价过快增长,物价保持稳定。此时为了避免房价对未来物价的冲击,又不影响到当前物价的稳定,可以提高贷款利率,并保持相对宽松的货币供给以对冲房价下跌对物价的不利影响,达到抑制房价而不影响物价的效果。2、房价和物价双双过快增长。此时,应调整贷款利率、准备金率和货币供应量,三管齐下加以治理。3、物价过快增长,而房价较为稳定。为了避免打压房价,可以不调整贷款利率、准备金率,仅控制货币供应量。
Housing price is an important indicator for monetary policy.This paper,based on a literature survey,researches the relationships between price stability and housing price changes and finds that housing price is an important cause of price index,and M1 and loan interest rate are the Granger cause of housing price.We find that housing price is mostly influenced by loan interest rate while price index mostly influenced by money supply.Thus we propose three kinds of different monetary policies in accordance with the three price index scenarios.
出处
《当代经济科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第4期16-24,124,共9页
Modern Economic Science
关键词
物价
房价
货币政策工具
Price index
Housing price
Monetary policy tool
