摘要
分析天津空港经济区供暖、蒸汽用户资料发现,不同用户的单位面积耗热量差异较大,建议根据用户性质确定相应的耗热量,逐步改装热量表计量取费,以较为准确地统计现有负荷。预测了空港经济区近期总冷负荷为229.75 MW,总电负荷为61 998 MW.h,规划热负荷到2012年为422.5 t/h。由复合泊松过程理论计算能源需求的期望和方差,则能源需求的随机发展近似呈正态分布函数。比较该随机预测结果与统计预测、规划预测结果可知,区域能源需求统计预测和规划预测均能够满足在不同的时间最可能出现的负荷要求。
Analysing the data of heating and steam users in the Tianjin Airport Economic Development District,finds that energy consumption per square meter area is notably different among consumers.Suggests that heat consumption be determined by the users＇ character and that heat meters should be installed for charging.Predicts that the total cooling load is 229.75 MW and the total electricity load is 61 998 MW·h in the district in recent years.The planning heat load is 422.5 t/h by the year 2012.If the expectation and variance of energy demand are gained through calculating according to Poisson process theory,the stochastic development of energy demand is approximately a normal distribution function.Compares the stochastic prediction result with statistic and planning results,and finds that both the statistics prediction and the planning prediction of district energy load can meet the needs of energy demand load which most likely occurs at different times.
出处
《暖通空调》
北大核心
2011年第7期58-60,140,共4页
Heating Ventilating & Air Conditioning
基金
国家发展和改革委员会能源项目(编号:[2010]2921)
天津市发展和改革委员会基础项目(编号:[2004]327)
关键词
区域供能
区域能源需求
负荷预测
district energy supply
district energy requirement
load prediction
