摘要
由于气候变暖及人类活动加剧,干旱灾害对全球粮食、水资源和生态安全及人类可持续发展的威胁日益突出,对干旱决策服务和应急管理能力提出了严峻挑战,干旱监测预警、影响评估及应急管理等方面的技术水平亟待进一步提高。在系统总结以往研究成果基础上,阐述了对干旱气候、干旱和干旱灾害的科学认识,归纳了干旱气候、干旱和干旱灾害的成因及其主要特征,系统分析了国际上干旱监测预警技术的发展历程及各种干旱指数的主要特征和相互关系。从科学发展趋势和更好满足社会服务需求角度,思考了干旱技术发展面临的主要科学挑战及未来科学发展途径。
Due to the climate warming and enhancement of human impacts,the menaces of drought disaster in safety of food supplies,water resources and ecology become more remarkable,and the great challenges of ability for impact evaluation,disaster mitigation and emergency management are brought forward.Thus,the technological level of drought monitoring,warning,evaluation,mitigation and management need to be improved.In this paper,based on the summary of the advances in drought research,our understandings on arid climate,drought and drought disaster are put forward,the key characteristics of rid climate,drought and drought disaster are generalized,and the courses to develop drought indices,the main properties of different sorts of drought indices and their mutual relationships are analyzed.Finally,according to the future situation of science and technology development and the service demand of society,the scientific challenges and the ways to develop the technology on drought are preliminarily discussed.
出处
《地球科学进展》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第7期763-778,共16页
Advances in Earth Science
基金
国家自然科学基金重点项目"黄土高原陆面过程观测与试验研究"(编号:40830957)
国家公益性行业科研专项"西北地区旱作农业对气候变暖的响应特征及其预警和应对技术研究"(编号:GYHY200806021)资助
关键词
干旱灾害
监测预警
干旱指数
水分循环
干旱观测系统
Drought
Monitoring and warning
Emergency management of drought
Water cycle
Arid observation system.
