摘要
总结了目前成品油管道工程经济评价存在的3个问题:管道输送损耗指标与实际成品油管输损耗率不一致;只将管道输送运费与建设方提供的现行运输方式下的运费进行对比,缺乏科学性和合理性;盈亏平衡分析、敏感性分析未考虑不确定因素在未来发生变动的概率,而这种概率与项目的风险程度密切相关。结合工程实例对上述问题进行深入分析,指出成品油管道经济评价应真实反映项目的实际预测效益,提出了完善成品油管道项目经济评价的建议。
At present,three questions existed in the current economic assessment of products pipeline project are summarized as follows:(1)pipeline transport loss index is not consistent with that of actual products pipeline;(2)comparison between the pipeline transport fee and the transport fee stipulated by the pipeline construction party is lack of scientificity and reasonableness under the current transport mode and(3)break-even analysis and sensitivity analysis have not covered the probability change of uncertain factors in the future,while that probability is closely related to the risk level of the project.Combined with a practical engineering example,the above questions are analyzed deeply.It is pointed out that the economic assessment of the products pipeline project should truly reflect the actual forecast benefits of the project.And some instructive suggestions to improve economic assessment are put forward.
出处
《油气储运》
CAS
北大核心
2011年第7期550-552,472,共3页
Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation
关键词
成品油管道
经济评价
损耗
运费
不确定性分析
products pipeline,economic assessment,loss,transport cost,uncertainty analysis
