摘要
本文以环境污染中的重要指标工业废气排放量和经济增长的关系为研究对象,基于1998—2008年中国省际面板数据,检验环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)在中国的存在性及相应的拐点研究,并以实证检验为基础对工业废气排放和经济增长的相关关系的影响因素进行分析。结果表明,工业废气排放量在工业化发展的整个阶段始终处于上升趋势,而EKC拐点一般出现在工业化结束之后的一段时间;截至2050年,将有30个省份越过拐点;就各个区域而言,相比中西部地区,东部地区总体上能够较早地到达拐点;同时,我们也应认识到拐点是一个动态变化的点,拐点的变化取决于环境污染程度和经济发展水平间的关系。
This paper analyzes the relation between the industrial exhaust emissions and the economic growth, using the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 1998 to 2008. We test the existence of Environmental Kuznets Curve （EKC） in China and analyze the corresponding inflection point and evidence-based tests on environmental pollution and the correlation between economic growth as well as the impact of related factors. The results show that industrial emissions of the whole development stage of industrialization is always in the ascendant trend, while EKC inflection point generally appear after a period of industrialized time ; by 2050, There will be 30 provinces get across the turning point, compared with the midwest, the eastern region in general can earlier arrive the inflection point. At the same time, we should realize inflection point which is a dynamic changes point. That point depends on the relationship between the environment pollution and economic growth.
出处
《中国科技论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第8期42-48,共7页
Forum on Science and Technology in China
基金
山东省软科学研究计划项目(2010RKGA1066)
关键词
工业废气
经济增长
区域分异
industrial exhaust emissions
economic growth
regional differentiation
