摘要
基于复杂适应系统、元胞自动机和马尔科夫链等相关理论,构建了城市土地利用的元胞自动机-马尔科夫模型(CA-Markov模型),给出了从众系数矩阵的演化规则和确定方法.以舟山市土地利用变更为例,利用CA-Markov模型对该市土地利用变化进行计算机模拟,分析城市土地利用的变化规律.同时,得到的土地利用系统非线性的复杂特征体现了CA-Markov模型具有模拟复杂适应系统的能力.研究表明CA-Markov复合模型不仅具有空间演化的优势,还具有Markov过程的优良性质,比简单的Markov模型和CA模型更优越.
The CA-Markov model（Cellular Automaton-Markov Model） of the urban land-use is constructed based on the Complex Adaptive System theory and Markov theory,in which we define the evolution regulation and the herd coefficient matrix.And then Zhoushan City＇s Land-use change is taken as an example to simulate the change of the land-use by proposed model,and the law of land-use change is obtained.The results show that land use for industrial and mining will be greatly expanded,and a large area of cultivated land and gardens will be occupied,which need to be protected.Also,the complexity of nonlinear from land-use system reflects that CA-Markov model has the ability to simulate complex adaptive system.Finally,the result shows that the CA-Markov complex model not only has the advantage of space evolution,but also has good properties of Markov process,which is superior to the simple Markov model and CA model.
出处
《浙江外国语学院学报》
2011年第3期64-69,共6页
Journal of Zhejiang International Studies University
基金
浙江省大学生科技创新活动计划(新苗人才计划)(2010R418007)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(10863002)
