摘要
中国长三角地区由于濒临西北太平洋,成为受台风灾害影响最严重的地区之一。结合灾害风险理论,将该地区16个地级市的140个县(包括一般县、县级市和市辖区)作为研究单元,对台风灾害风险进行了评估。选用台风大风和台风降雨等10个指标,采用主成分分析法计算了各县的台风致灾因子强度指数;选用各县2006年底人口密度、地区生产总值和第一产业产值占总产值的比例等3个指标,采用主成分分析法计算了其承灾体脆弱性指数;将致灾因子指数与脆弱性指数相乘,得到了各县的台风灾害风险指数,从而得到了风险等级图。该风险等级图揭示了台风灾害风险在长三角地区的等级分布状况,可以为长三角地区台风灾害防范策略的制定提供参考。
The Yangtze River Delta, located in the eastern coastal area of China, is one of the most prone areas totyphoon hazard in China. Typhoon disaster risk of this region was assessed at county level based on disaster risk theory. The typhoon hazard magnitude was calculated with a principal comppnent analysis （PCA） method by selecting 10 indices, including annual average precipitation caused by typhoon, annual average ground wind speed number of days with total precipitations more than 50mm, 100ram, and 200mm respectively, caused by typhoon, number of days with total precipitations more than 50mm, l00mm, and 200mm respectively,and number of days with ground wind speeds higher than 10.8m/s, 13.9m/s, 17.2m/s, 20.8m/s, and 24.5m/s respectively, based on meteorological records from the year 1957 to 2005. Similarly me counues vulnerautltty index was also obtained with PCA from 3 indices, including GDP, population density and the ratio of gross product of primary industry to GDP in 2006. Then, the typhoon risk index which indicates the relative scales of the possible losses due to typhoon hazard was calculated by multiplying the magnitude index by the vulnerability index. Risk map based on the county-level risk assessment could help local governments to make typhoon disaster risk reduction olan.
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第4期77-83,共7页
Journal of Natural Disasters
基金
国家"十一五"科技支撑计划项目"长三角地区自然灾害风险等级评估技术研究"(2008BAK50B07)
"高等学校学科创新引智计划"(B08008)
关键词
台风灾害
风险
主成分分析
长三角
typhoon disaster
risk
principle component analysis
Yangtze River Delta
