摘要
2011年和2012年我国会出现CPI涨幅超过5%的通货膨胀现象。2012年以后食品价格下降,CPI涨幅回落,但非食品价格和PPI仍将保持较快上涨态势。人民币名义汇率升值和提高存贷款利率会有效降低物价上涨幅度,但将付出不同程度的经济增速下降代价。在小幅度提息的同时采取人民币名义汇率小幅度渐进升值措施,是抑制物价过快上涨、保持经济较快平稳增长的较佳选择。
In 2011 and 2012,CPI rate of increase will be more than 5% in our country.After 2012,food prices will be down,CPI rate of increase will fall back,but non-food prices and PPI will maintain a rapid rise.To increase RMB nominal rate and deposit and lower bank interest rates for deposits and loans can reduce the inflation rate,but the levels of economic growth will drop accordingly.To improve RMB nominal exchange rate in a small range is a better choice to curb excessive price rises and maintain stable and rapid economic growth.
出处
《改革》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第8期34-61,共28页
Reform
关键词
通货膨胀
人民币汇率
利率
政策模拟
expansion of the currency
RMB exchange rate
the rate of interest
policy simulation
