刘易斯转折点真的到来了吗被引量：17

Has China Reached the Lewis Turning Point?

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摘要近年来,农民工名义工资上涨与"民工荒"现象的出现,引发学术界关于刘易斯转折点是否到来的讨论。本研究在回顾现有文献的基础上,使用微观资料估计农业部门影子工资和农业劳动力的边际产出,结合农民工工资的匡算,试图对"刘易斯拐点"是否到来进行实证研究。研究发现,尽管农业劳动边际产出有较大幅度提高,但是仍旧没有赶上农业部门工资,样本区间内中国劳动力市场上的"商业化"拐点没有到来,从农民工资匡算来看,尽管名义工资有上涨,但是实际工资却经历先下降后上升的过程,仍旧没有恢复到之前的最高水平,实际工资水平不支持刘易斯拐点到来。 In recent years, the increase of nominal wage and the shortage of migrant labor attract the attention on whether China＇s Lewis turning point has come. Based on the literature review, this paper tries to identify the Lewis turning point from the comparison between wages and the marginal productivity （MP） of labor in the agri- cultural sector and the real wages movements. The results show that the marginal productivity is still less than the wage, besides of its dramatic increase, the turning point in China has not come. Although the nominal wage experienced a trend of increase, the real wages experienced a decline and recovery, and did not reach the peak. There are no enough evidences to support that China＇s Lewis turning point has come.

作者毛学峰刘靖

机构地区中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院中央财经大学经济学院

出处《金融研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2011年第8期1-14,共14页 Journal of Financial Research

关键词刘易斯拐点农民工工资边际产出 Lewis turning point wage of migrant workers marginal productivity

分类号 F249.2 [经济管理—劳动经济] F224 [经济管理—国民经济]

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参考文献26

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