摘要
目的：探讨应用时间序列ARIMA模型对麻疹发病率预测的可行性，为预防和控制麻疹提供依据。方法：采用SPSSl7．0对深圳市2002-2007年麻疹月发病的资料建立ARIMA模型，并对预测效果进行评价。结果：建立模型ARIMA（1，1，0）×（0，1，1）12是合适的，Q统计量计算方法，Q-16．34，P〉0．05。结论：ARIMA模型能很好的模拟深圳市麻疹发病率的变动趋势，预测效果可靠。
Objective： To explore the feasibility of auto regressive integrated moving average（ARIMA） model and to develop scientific basis for prevention and control measles. Method： ARIMA model was established based on the measles incidence in Shenzhen from 2002 to 2007 and the prediction effect was evaluated by SPSS13.0 software. Results： The model of ARIMA（1,1,0）Х （0,1,1）12 was established. The statistic of Q was 16.34（P〉0.05）, verifying the applicability of this mode, Conclusion： ARIMA model can be used to exactly fit the changes of the incidence of measles and predict the future measles incidence in future.
出处
《数理医药学杂志》
2011年第4期379-382,共4页
Journal of Mathematical Medicine
基金
2009年深圳市科技计划项目(编号:200903120)
