摘要
运用茆智提出的ET0预测方法,并结合其他学者对方法的改进,利用日常的天气预报信息,分别对豫北地区的冬小麦和夏玉米生育期内的ET0进行了预测。结果表明,在冬小麦生育期的ET0预测值,返青前绝对误差不超过0.8mm/d,返青以后93%的预测结果相对误差小于20%,53%的预测结果小于10%;在夏玉米生育时期内的预测值,95%的预测结果相对误差在20%之内,64%的预测结果相对误差在10%以内。该方法简单易用,而且预测精度较高,为该地区冬小麦和夏玉米ET0的预测,以及作物的灌溉预报提供了依据,同时亦为科学的用水管理和决策提供参考。
Based on daily weather forecast information,reference crop evapotranspiration（ET0） in winter wheat and summer maize growth period was forecasted respectively by Maozhi forecasting model and improved measure of this model in north Henan province in this article.The results showed that absolute error of predictive value was less than 0.8 mm/d before green stage,relative error of 93% was less than 20%,and relative error of 53% was less than 10% after green stage in winter wheat period;Relative error of 95% was less than 20%,and relative error of 64% was less than 10% in summer maize period.Simple use and high precision of this measure can provide evidence for forcasting of winer wheat and summer maize and crop irrigation forecast.
出处
《灌溉排水学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第4期84-87,共4页
Journal of Irrigation and Drainage
基金
农业部作物需水与调控重点开放实验室基金(CWRR200908)
华北水利水电学院高层次人才科研启动项目(200918)
关键词
参考作物腾发量
天气预报
预测模型
冬小麦
夏玉米
reference crop evapotranspiration
weather weather
forecast model
winer wheat
summer maize
