摘要
针对常压储罐完整性管理中储罐的地震风险,提出了一种定量风险评价方法。在明确场地影响震源基础上,采用Cornell地震概率危险性分析方法,确定场地每年地震发生的概率。根据常压储罐的震害特点,确定储罐失效的3种极限状态。基于储罐尺寸、材料和地震影响因子的离散性,采用蒙特卡洛方法统计地震发生时储罐可能发生的损伤概率和损伤形式,并根据不同失效模式产生的概率,以及不同失效模式下的后果差异,最终确定常压储罐的地震风险等级。利用储罐风险定量评价方法对现场罐区的地震风险进行了实例分析,通过加强对相对高风险储罐的管理,可有效地降低罐区的运行风险。
Based on understanding the influential seismic source of field,Cornell method is used to analyze the seismic hazard and to determine the seismic probability.According to the seismic damage characteristics,three limit states of storage tank failure are determined.Because of the discreteness of tank sizes,materials and seismic impact factors,Monte-Carlo method is used to calculate the failure probability and form of tank,by which the seismic risk level of atmospheric storage tank is determined.A case analysis on the seismic risk of field tankfarm is made with this method.It is considered that strengthening the management on the relatively high risk storage tank can effectively reduce the operating risk of tankfarm.
出处
《油气储运》
CAS
北大核心
2011年第8期629-633,593,共5页
Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation
关键词
常压储罐
地震
定量
Cornell方法
蒙特卡洛方法
风险评价
atmospheric storage tank,earthquake,quantification,Cornell method,Monte-Carlo method,risk assessment
