摘要
运用存在干扰系数情况下的内生断点检验方法,能够识别1979年第1季度至2008年第4季度中国经济周期波动特征出现结构性转变的准确时点;构建结构向量自回归模型,并运用反事实对比实验方法,可以分析经济周期波动缓和化的动因。研究结果表明,1995年末是改革开放30年间经济周期由大波动向大缓和转变的分水岭;货币政策改进对波动缓和化的贡献为30%～40%,其余部分得益于各种冲击因素波动性的减弱。目前,货币政策在我国调控经济周期波动中的作用日益增强,仍然有较大的改进和提升空间。
This paper employs structural break tests of unknown point with nuisance parameter to test for possible break in China＇s business cycle volatility and identifies that the last quarter of 1995is the significant structural break point.The paper then constructs an SVAR model and conducts counterfactual analysis to examine the driving factors of the great moderation in China＇s business cycle fluctuations.The results of several robustness analyses suggest that systematic improvements in monetary policy account for 30%-40%of the great moderation while the remaining portion is explained by the reduction in the volatility of structural shocks.These findings raise useful questions and provide important implications for the ongoing economic revolution and policy adjustment in China.
出处
《中国人民大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第6期31-39,共9页
Journal of Renmin University of China
基金
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(08JZD0011)
关键词
经济周期波动性
货币政策
结构性变化
business cycle volatility
monetary policy
structural change
