摘要
在对贵州省毕节地区耕地面积、城镇化率、区域经济增长趋势变化分析的基础上,运用多元回归分析,探讨耕地面积与固定资产投资额、工业生产总值及城镇化率之间关系。结果表明,该区耕地面积从1988年的4.02×105hm2下降到2008年的3.65×105hm2,年平均递减率为0.48%。人均耕地面积由1988年的0.069 hm2下降到了2008年的0.047 hm2,年均递减率为1.90%;固定资产投资、工业发展、城镇化率对耕地面积的减少都有显著影响,弹性系数分别为-0.030,-0.002和-0.046,其中人口城镇化对耕地面积减少的影响最大。20 a间毕节地区城镇化的发展导致耕地非农化的产生,仍然是以牺牲耕地资源为代价,城市土地的集约节约利用水平有待提高。
Based on the analysis of Bijie City＇s cultivated land,the rate of urbanization and the changes of regional economic growth trends,the article selected multiple-regression model to study the relationship between area of cultivated land and investment of fixed assets,industrial output and urbanization.The results showed that cultivated area had been reduced from 4.02×10^5hm^2 in 1988 to 3.65×10^5hm^2 in 2008 with annual average decline rate 0.48%,meanwhile,per capita arable land also reduced from 0.069 hm^2 in 1988 to 0.047 hm^2 in 2008 with the annual average decline rate 1.90%.Fixed asset investment,industrial development and urbanization had significant impacts on the reduction of arable land,and their elasticity coefficients were-0.030,-0.002,-0.046,respectively,among which population urbanization exerted the greatest influence.During the past 20 years,the development of urbanization had led to non-agriculturalization of farmland at the expense of the arable land resource.Therefore,the level of the intensive and economical use of urban land needs to be improved.
出处
《水土保持通报》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第4期218-222,共5页
Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
2011年贵州省贵州大学研究生创新基金项目"毕节试验区人口
资源环境与经济协调发展研究"[校研文(2011074)]
贵州大学毕节试验区招标项目"毕节生态屏障建设与生态保护研究"[贵大毕合字(2009)105号]
贵州省科技厅"贵州可持续发展试验区建设研究"[黔科合SZ字(2008)3078]
关键词
人口
经济增长
耕地资源
计量分析
毕节地区
population
economic development
cultivated land resource
econometric analysis
Bijie City
