摘要
采用产业经济学、计量经济学、统计学中的相关方法,对伊犁河谷1956—2008年期间产业结构演进的特征进行了定量评价,并针对伊犁河谷产业结构演进的三个阶段及其特征进行了研究。利用指标计算分析了三次产业及其内部结构、就业产业结构、产业结构升级转换等层面的动态演进过程,然后运用偏离-份额分析法计算了1956—1978年、1979—1992年和1993—2008年三个代表时段产业结构演进的数量特征。结果表明,伊犁河谷产业结构演进特征具有以下特点:1.一产比重一直呈现明显的下降趋势,二产业比重总体上处于上升趋势,第三产业比第二产业上升快,但内部结构不合理;2.产业结构和就业结构发展表现出极强的不均衡性;3.产业结构转换速度逐渐变缓,特别是1993年以后,随着经济活动日趋正常化、规模化、成熟化,产业结构转换速度相对较小;4.产业结构一直是靠着传统的农牧业在发展演进,落后的工业和不发达的第三产业严重制约着伊犁河谷产业结构的演进。
Industrial structure is the base and core of economic structure,and its evolution relates greatly to the speed and quality of economic development.In this paper,based on use of the correlative methods in industrial economy,econometrics and statistics,Ili River Valley’s industrial structure evolution from 1956 to 2008 is quantificationally estimated.After pointing out the three phases of Ili River Valley’s industrial structure evolution and their different characteristics,this Paper analyzed the dynamic evolution of the three industries and their internal structure,employment and production structure,and upgrade and conversion of industrial structure by indicators.Furthermore,it concluded the analysis on quantitative characteristics of the internal structure evolution in the three typical periods of 1956—1978,1979—1992 and 1993—2008 by using the SSM method.The results show that Ili River Valley’s industrial structure have some characteristics： 1.Specific gravity of primary industry assumes to go down obviously all the time,secondary industry’s one is in an uptrend for as a whole,and tertiary industry develops quickly relativing to secondary industry,but inner structure is still unreasonable.2.The development of industrial structure and employment one shows obviously the fact which is very unbalanced in the Ili River Valley 3.Conversion rate of the industrial structure is gradually slowing down.In particular,after 1993 year the conversion rate of the industrial structure is relatively unobvious along with the increasing normalization,large-scale and maturity of economic activity.4.The evolution of industrial structure in the Ili River Valley has been relying on the development of traditional agriculture and animal husbandry,and the backward industry and undeveloped tertiary industry are seriously restricting the evolution of the industrial structure.
出处
《山地学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第4期459-468,共10页
Mountain Research
基金
国家"十一五"科技支撑课题"伊犁河流域产业发展模式与生态系统可持续管理研究"(2007BAC15B08)~~
关键词
产业结构演进
偏离-份额分析法
伊犁河谷
industrial structure evolution
Shift - Share Method
Ili River Valley
