摘要
计划生育由于影响人口的增长与人口结构的变化从而在一定时期推高房地产需求,但长期将缩减房地产需求;城市化由于影响人口的迁移从而长期地推高房地产需求,但其边际效应也将趋于递减。所以,随着时间的推移,房地产市场的供求关系向供过于求转变。而目前存在两个重要的加大房地产市场杠杆的因素:"打捆贷款"与"预售制",他们在供不应求的时候通过加速供给的形成而使各方皆大欢喜,在供过于求时却放大了房地产市场的金融风险。
Family planning reduces the demand for real estate in the long run while urbanization increases it in the long run with decreasing marginal utility. Thus, in the long term supply would surpass demand in real estate market. However, two important factors, ＂whole loan to local government＂ and ＂presale system＂, are currently considered as the leverage of real estate market. These two factors make every party in the market happy during excess demand while increase financial risks during excess supply.
出处
《当代经济科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第5期74-77,126-127,共4页
Modern Economic Science
基金
西安电子科技大学基本科研业务费资助项目(K50510080020)
关键词
计划生育
城市化
房地产市场
Key words： Family Planning
Urbanization
Real Estate Market Key words： Family Planning
Urbanization
Real Estate MarketKey words： Family Planning
Urbanization
Real Estate MarketKey words： Family Planning
Urbanization
Real Estate Market Family Planning
Urbanization
Real Estate Market
