摘要
以非线性动力学为基础,通过响应面方法建立马尾松毛虫有虫面积序列密度依赖离散世代的非线性模型。结果表明:用响应面方法检测的马尾松毛虫有虫面积序列具有混沌特征,马尾松毛虫世代间有虫面积动态为2级相关,可以用前1代及前2代的有虫面积预测下1代的有虫面积,且预测准确性较高。
Based on nonlinear dynamics, a density-dependence discrete-time nonlinear dynamic model of occurrence area series for Dendrolimus punctatus was established using Response Surface Method （RSM）. Results show that, the occurrence area series for D. punctatus tested by RSM has chaos characteristics. The dynamics of occurrence area between different generations exhibited the relationships between two generations. The forecast of the occurrence area of next generation could be accomplished with the data of last generation and the generation before last, and the method has a relatively high accuracy.
出处
《东北林业大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第9期94-96,共3页
Journal of Northeast Forestry University
关键词
马尾松毛虫
发生量
响应面方法
混沌
非线性动力学
Dendrolimus punctatus
Occurrence quantity
Response S,Lrface method
Chaos
Non-linear dynamic models
