摘要
采用多模式多物理参数化方案的集合预报方法,以GRAPES和WRF中尺度区域数值模式为基础,分别使用2个模式提供的多种物理过程参数化方案和积云参数化方案,通过敏感试验进行有效组合,形成了8个集合成员的集合预报系统。使用该系统对新疆2007年和2008年以降水为主的27场天气过程进行模拟试验,采用Ts评分和BS评分方法,对集合预报的24 h降水预报结果进行检验。结果表明:集合预报对新疆偏大的降水过程评分比较高;平均集合预报和控制预报都比实况降水偏大,但集合预报比控制预报的偏大程度要小,与实况更接近;集合预报降水在24 h内预报效果明显,在30 h内的降水有着比较好的参考意义。
Based on the mesoscale model GRAPES and WRF with multiple physical parameterization schemes and cumulus parameterization schemes,an ensemble forecast system is developed with eight combinational schemes after carrying out the sensitivity experiments.Twenty sever precipitation synoptic processes in Xinjiang in 2007 and 2008 were simulated using the ensemble forecast system,and the forecast of 24-hour precipitation was tested with Ts and BS.The results reveal that the score of ensemble forecast in forecasting heavy precipitation in Xinjiang was high,the forecasted precipitation was higher than the observed precipitation,but the forecasted precipitation with ensemble forecast was lower than that with control forecast,and it was closer to the observed one.The effect of precipitation of ensemble forecast in 24 hours is superior to the others.
出处
《干旱区研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第5期891-895,共5页
Arid Zone Research
基金
国家自然科学基金(40975097)
中国沙漠气象科学研究基金(Sqj2009005)
