摘要
针对以往滑坡变形预测模型实用性不足的情况,从系统论观点和时序分析原理出发,将滑坡位移时序分解为趋势项和偏离项。通过灰色系统模型提取位移时序的趋势项,采用进化神经网络模拟位移时序偏离项之间的复杂非线性关系,建立起GM-ENN组合模型进行滑坡变形预测研究。并将此组合模型应用于三峡库区白水河滑坡的变形预测研究中。研究结果表明:该组合模型具有较强的建模能力、较高的精度,可用于相关的工程实践之中,具有一定的理论研究与实际应用价值。
Aiming at the poor applicability of present landslide deformation forecast model,based on the view of system theory and time series principle,the landslide displacement was divided into tendency item and deviation item.Through the extraction of the time series tendency item by grey systematic model and simulation of complicated non-linear relation of time series deviation item by evolutionary neural network,the GM-ENN composited model was set up for landslide deformation research.The composited model was used in the deformation forecast of Baishuihe landslide in TPG area.The research result shows the composited model has strong modeling ability and high accuracy.
出处
《人民长江》
北大核心
2011年第17期37-39,62,共4页
Yangtze River
关键词
滑坡
变形预测
组合模型
灰色系统
进化神经网络
landslide
deformation forecast
composited model
grey system
evolutionary neural network
