摘要
在构建大型航天研发项目风险评价指标体系的基础上,针对风险因素之间存在相互影响的特点,根据网络分析法(ANP)建立大型航天研发项目风险评估的网络结构模型,确定了所有风险指标的权重。引入模糊综合评价(FCE)的思想和方法,提出大型航天研发项目风险评估的ANP_FCE模型,并结合某航天研发项目描述模型的建模过程,确定项目的综合风险水平和关键风险因素,为项目风险管理与控制提供重要的决策依据。
Based on establishing the large-scale space R&D project risk evaluation indexes system, in allusionto the characteristics that risk factors are interactive, analytical network process is applied to build the risk evaluation network structure model for large-scale space R&D project, determine the weight of all the indexes. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is introduced to evaluate the integrated risk level and the key risk factors.The process of such ANP-FCE model is described by a demonstration case analysis, and the study provides a new method for promoting the management and control of large-scale aerospace R&D project.
出处
《科学技术与工程》
2011年第26期6502-6506,共5页
Science Technology and Engineering
基金
"十二五"重大项目
湖南省哲学社会科学基金项目(2010YBA022)资助
关键词
网络分析法
模糊综合评价
研发项目
风险评估
Analytic Network Process (ANP) Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCE) R&D project risk evaluation