摘要
脆弱性评估是目前国际减灾和灾害风险研究普遍关注的热点问题.以上海市浦东新区为例,利用2006年浦东新区土地利用和最近42年最大日降雨量数据,用P-III曲线拟合概率分布,推算重现期为20、50、100、200、500、1000年的最大降雨量,结合已有的城市暴雨内涝评价模型和土地利用类型脆弱性函数,在对暴雨内涝危险性分析的基础上,对浦东新区8种土地利用类型在不同重现期下的脆弱性进行评价,得到浦东新区的综合脆弱性分布图.结果表明:①6种重现期下,浦东新区的居住用地、商业用地和绿地的脆弱性最大,农业用地、工业用地、事业单位次之,最小的是交通用地和水域;②从空间分布看,浦东新区脆弱性从中心城区向外呈逐渐降低的趋势,中心城区的商业用地和居住用地脆弱性最大,而郊区的农业用地脆弱性最小;③重现期200年是脆弱性变化的转折点,当重现期大于200年时,工业用地和农业用地脆弱性急剧增大.
Vulnerability assessment is one of the common concern hotspots in current international disaster reduction and disaster risk research.Pudong District in Shanghai was selected as a study area in this paper.Relying on the land-use types data and the maximum daily rainfall of the past 42 years,and using the P-III probability distribution function,the paper have got the maximum rainfalls of the recurrence periods of 20,50,100,200,500,1000 years,respectively.Based on the existing evaluation model of urban rainstorm water-logging and land use types,the paper assessed the vulnerability of the eight land use types in Pudong District under different maximum rainfalls,and made vulnerability distribution maps of different recurrence periods of the maximum rainfalls in Pudong district.Research results showed that 1） the residential,commercial and green land are with the highest vulnerability,following are the agricultural,industrial and the government office land,and the lowest are the transportation and water land;2） the vulnerability gradually decreased outward from the center city,and the center city commercial land and residential land are with the highest vulnerability,while the agricultural land in country is of the lowest;3） once the recurrence periods are more than 200 years,the vulnerability of the industrial land and agricultural land will increase rapidly.
出处
《上海师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
2011年第4期427-434,共8页
Journal of Shanghai Normal University(Natural Sciences)
基金
国家自然科学基金(41071324
40730526)
上海市教委重点学科(J50402)
上海市科委创新行动计划(08240514000)
上海师范大学重点培育学科项目(DZL801)
关键词
暴雨内涝
土地利用类型
脆弱性评价
浦东新区
rainstorm water-logging
land use types
vulnerability assessment
Pudong District
