摘要
针对低需求量备件采用一般的时间序列预测法误差较大的难题,构建基于马尔可夫与蒙特卡罗仿真的预测模型。分析备件需求量的马尔可夫性,将马尔可夫链与蒙特卡罗仿真相结合,在建立仿真模型的基础上,以MATLAB为平台,给出利用计算机实现蒙特卡罗仿真的算法步骤,并应用实例进行分析。结果表明:在给定备件满足率的情况下,应用该模型可根据季度消耗量序列来预测该类备件未来1年的需求量,为低需求量备件的预测提供借鉴。
Aiming at the large error problem while using the general time series prediction for lower demand spare parts,this paper builds a prediction model based on Markove and Monte Carlo simulation.Based on the simulation model,this paper using MATLAB platform analyses the Markov property,combines Markov chain with Monte Carlo simulation,gives the algorithms to achieve the Monte Carlo simulation and application for analysis.The results show that,given the rate of spare parts to meet the case,according to the application of the model to predict the sequence of quarterly consumption of such demand in the coming one year,spare parts for the low demand forecast for reference.
出处
《兵工自动化》
2011年第10期85-87,共3页
Ordnance Industry Automation
