摘要
为了改善ENSO的预测效果,基于Nino综合区的海温距平时间序列,采用小波分解和最小二乘支持向量机结合的方法,引入多步递阶预测的思想,建立ENSO的预测模型。试验结果表明:基于小波分解和最小二乘支持向量机结合的多步预测方法,可以有效提高ENSO的预报精度。同时,该模型具有同时得到不同时效的预测结果,建模方便,计算效率高等优点,表现出一定的预报优势,为改善ENSO的预测效果提供了一个可借鉴的方法和途径。
To improve the predictive effect of the EI Nino/La Nine and the Southern Oscillation（ENSO）,based on the sea surface temperature anomaly time series of Nino integrated area,the method of the wavelet decomposition and the least squares support vector machine combined with multi-step delivery forecast idea was introduced to establish ENSO prediction model.The analysis shows that the compositive multi-step forecasting method based on the wavelet decomposition and the least squares support vector machine is efficient with much advantages in El Nino/La Nina events prediction,and that the forecasting results provide reference to the ENSO forecast.
出处
《解放军理工大学学报（自然科学版）》
EI
北大核心
2011年第5期531-535,共5页
Journal of PLA University of Science and Technology(Natural Science Edition)
关键词
ENSO
小波分解
最小二乘支持向量机
多步递阶预测
ENSO
wavelet decomposition
least squares support vector machines
multi-step delivery forecast
