摘要
水库防洪预报调度中的多种不确定性因素是风险产生的根本原因。分析水库防洪预报调度中不确定性因素的随机性、模糊性及灰色性,并在已有的防洪预报调度方式随机风险率计算方法的基础上,提出了随机-模糊、随机-灰色及综合特性风险率的计算方法,研究了水库实施防洪预报调度方式相对于常规调度方式水库风险率的变化。桓仁水库的应用研究表明,防洪预报调度方式综合特性风险率计算方法是可行的,相对于常规调度方式并未增加水库的防洪风险。
A variety of uncertainties in reservoir flood control forecast operation is the primary cause of risk. The stochastic character, fuzzy character and grey character of the uncertainties are analyzed, and on the basis of the stochastic risk rate method, the stochastic-fuzzy risk rate method, stochastic-grey risk rate method and integrated features risk rate method are proposed to discuss the different risk rates between the flood control forecast operation mode and the flood control operation mode. The research on Huanren Reservoir shows that the integrated features risk rate method is feasible, and the flood control forecast operation mode does not increase the risk than the flood control operation mode.
出处
《水力发电》
北大核心
2011年第10期18-21,共4页
Water Power
关键词
防洪预报调度方式
风险率
随机性
模糊性
灰色性
flood control forecast operation mode
risk rate
stochastic character
, fuzzy characte, grey character
