摘要
根据最新人口统计资料,分别建立长、中、短不同维度的GM(11,)模型、增量GM(11,)模型和灰色Verhulst模型,对2005-2009年平顶山市人口总量进行检验性预测,通过对比分析,发现短维度GM(1,1)模型的预测效果要好于其他模型.最后,在充分采纳新信息的基础上建立5维GM(1,1)模型,对十二五期间平顶山市人口发展进行预测,为经济社会协调发展提供科学依据.
Based on the latest population statistics of Pingdingshan,the long,middle and short dimension model of GM（1,1）,IGM（1,1） and grey Verhulst model have been constructed.And then,the population of Pingdingshan from 2005 to 2009 has been verified with the built models.Through comparision and analysis of forecasted results,we find the short dimension GM（1,1） is better than others.At last,the five-dimension GM（1,1） is built on fully adopting new information.Forecasting the population of Pingdingshan during the twelfth five-year plan will provide scientific proof for the harmonious development of economic society.
出处
《平顶山学院学报》
2011年第5期21-25,共5页
Journal of Pingdingshan University
