摘要
针对民航风险评价中大多数综合评价方法采取常权综合法,当评价指标体系中某些指标出现严重缺陷时,导致最终综合评价值与实际情况不符的现象,将变权综合法应用到民航风险评价中。给出变权综合法风险评价的基本步骤,以航空公司风险评价为例,建立评价指标体系,运用模糊数学知识对底层指标进行赋值,并对其进行标准量化,其次根据变权综合评价法的基本原理及民航行业高风险的特点,选择适合的状态变权公式,计算评价指标体系的状态变权及变权,最后由变权综合法的综合评价公式,计算出系统的风险评价值。通过与常权综合法的计算结果相比较,变权综合法能较好解决民航风险评价中常权综合法存在的问题,同时计算结果也验证了变权综合法的优越性、有效性和实用性。
At present invariable weight method had been used in most comprehensive evaluation methods of risk assessment for civil aviation safety management system.If some indicators had serious defects,the comprehensive evaluation values were unreasonable.Aimed at the problem,variable weight synthetic evaluation method was applied to risk assessment of civil aviation.Firstly,the steps of variable weight synthetic evaluation method to risk assessment were given.Taking risk assessment of airline as an example,an index system was established,and then standard quantization of the bottom indicators was performed by using fuzzy mathematics. Secondly,the appropriate state variable weight formula was selected basing on the high risk characteristic of civil aviation,and the state variable weights and the variable weights of index system were obtained by the basic principles of variable weight method.At last,the system risk assessment evaluation values were obtained by the synthetic evaluation formula of variable weight method.Comparing the results of invariable weight method with the results of variable weight method,variable weight method was able to solve the problems in invariable weight method of safety assessment of civil aviation.And the results of calculation also demonstrate the superiority,the validity and the practicality of variable weight comprehensive evaluation method.
出处
《中国安全生产科学技术》
CAS
北大核心
2011年第10期143-148,共6页
Journal of Safety Science and Technology
基金
中国民用航空飞行学院科学研究基金(编号:J2010-79
J2008-49)
关键词
变权综合法
航空公司
风险评价
状态变权
variable weight synthetic evaluation method
airlines
risk assessment
state variable weight
