公共政策仿真方法:原理、应用与前景被引量：31

Public Policy Simulation Approach: its Applications and Prospects

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摘要从方法论的视角讨论了公共政策仿真的ABM方法原理、应用和前景。学界就社会科学研究应该遵循的方法论问题一直存在着不同取向的争论,在就此形成的认识论连续统的框架下,社会仿真的诸多概念模型也都有各自在"通则论-个体论"的连续统中的位置,而目前公共政策仿真的ABM方法无疑在这样的连续统中占据着重要地位。公共政策过程的复杂性制约了传统研究方法的效果,而基于场景分析的公共政策系统分析和基于机制的政策主体行为分析使公共政策仿真的ABM方法突破了传统研究方法的窠臼,通过科学的建模技术以及严谨的检验环节,结合政策结果的3D场景呈现和群决策平台,为公共政策领域开创了独具科学性和人本性的激动人心的应用前景。 This paper explores an ABM simulation approach and its applications and prospects in public policy.The debate on knowledge claims of social sciences is still unsolved.With the continuum of epistemological approaches,social simulation studies take their own 'nomothetic-idiographic' position,while no doubt the ABM simulation approach in public policy occupies an important position.The complexity of the process of public policy restricts the effectiveness of traditional research methods.The scenario-based system analysis of public policy systems and mechanisms-based analysis of agents make the ABM approach break through the traditional research methods.With scientific modeling technology,rigorous testing session,3D presentation of policy outcomes,and group decision making platform,the ABM simulation approach provides unique scientific and humane exciting prospects in public policy area.

作者李大宇米加宁徐磊

机构地区哈尔滨工业大学经济与管理学院北京理工大学

出处《公共管理学报》 CSSCI 2011年第4期8-20,122-123,共13页 Journal of Public Management

基金国家自然科学基金项目(71073037)

关键词公共政策仿真方法论连续统基于主体建模 Public Policy Simulation Methodology Continuum Agent-Based Modeling

分类号 F019.6 [经济管理—政治经济学]

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