摘要
证券分析师的盈利预测在我国资本市场中扮演着越来越重要的角色。本文以2004～2006年被分析师预测的A股上市公司为样本,在控制盈余特征、公司规模及性质、行业和年度等因素的基础上,实证检验了机构持股比例和盈余管理动机对证券分析师盈利预测准确度的影响。研究结果显示:被分析公司机构持股比例的提高,将带来盈利预测准确度的提高;而当公司存在巨亏或微利的盈余管理动机时,分析师预测的难度增加,预测准确度降低。此外,分析师关注度及盈余特征对盈利预测也会产生影响。对公司进行跟踪的分析师越多,盈利预测的准确性越高,当公司发生亏损或收益下滑时,盈利预测准确性较差。
Earnings forecasts of the financial analysts have played a more important role in Chinese capital market in recent years. Based on the earnings forecast sample from 2004 to 2006, this paper explored the effects of the firms’ institutional ownership and earnings management behaviors on the accuracy of analysts’ forecasts. We find that the accuracy of analysts’ earnings forecasts is enhanced by the higher percentage of a firm’s share held by the financial institutions. But the accuracy is reduced due to earnings management. Additional findings show that the number of analysts following the firms and the characters of earnings also influence analysts’ forecasts. When more analysts try to forecast the earnings of a firm, the analysts’ earnings forecast errors are reduced. Financial analysts’ forecasts are less accurate when the firm reports a loss or decrease in earnings.
出处
《中大管理研究》
2008年第4期19-37,共19页
China Management Studies
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目(项目号:70402008)的资助
关键词
盈利预测准确度
机构持股比例
盈余管理
earnings forecast accuracy, institutional ownership, earnings management
