摘要
目的同时分析一个系统的不同危险状态．方法利用突变理论和模糊理论，以系统中的能量和不可靠度作为两个控制参数，以系统的功能作为状态参数进行分析．结果与结论开发了一个风险分析的尖点突变模型，使与系统安全状态有关的不同状态，如事故状态，安全状态，未遂事故状态可以在一个模型上同时表示出来并进行评价．
Aim To assess simultaneously various risk states of a system. Methods\ Using the catastrophe and fuzzy theory, the energy and uncertainty in a system are set as two control variables and the function of the system is used as the state variable for analysis. Results and Conclusion\ A risk analysis model named the cusp model is presented. Various states regarding the safety of the system such as the accident state, no accident state and miss state can be represented at will on the cusp model.
基金
国家自然科学基金
关键词
尖点突变
风险分析
突变
模糊理论
cusp catastrophe
risk analysis
catastrophe
fuzzy theory
