摘要
文中计算了太平洋地区各月海温距平与宁夏６、７、８月降水指数的相关，发现各月的高相关区在时间和空间上有所不同，分析了９次ＥＮＳＯ当年和次年宁夏各月降水变化的总体特征，发现宁夏夏季降水ＥＮＳＯ当年偏少，偏少程度占年偏少的６５％～７９％；ＥＮＳＯ次年偏多，偏多程度占年的５９．２％～８７．９％。对宁夏夏季降水和ＮＩＮＯ指数的谱分析发现，宁夏６月降水没有明显周期，７月降水存在１５年和３年左右的周期，８月降水只有３年周期，ＮＩＮＯ指数存在３．７５年左右的周期。对凝聚谱和位相谱值的分析结果表明，赤道东太平洋地区海温变化超前宁夏夏季降水变化１．６７年，这就为宁夏的夏季降水长期预报提供了依据。
Monthly correlation coefficients between sea temperature anomaly in Pacific Region and Precipitation index of June,July and August in Ningxia,which are calculated in the paper, show that high coefficients have different temporal and spatial distribution.By analysing monthly rainfall change features of a ENSO years and next years,it is proved that precipitation in summer in Ningxia is less and about 65-79% whole year less on ENSO year, but on next year it is more and about 592-87.9% whole year more .It is discovered that precipitation in June has not obvious period, and in July it has a 15-year period and a 3-year period,and in August it only has a 3-year period,and NINO index has about 3.75-year period according to spectrum analysis. The results of coagulation spectrum and phase spectrum analysis give us that sea temperature changes in East equator Pacific region go 1.67-year ahead precipitation changes in Summer in Ningxia.It is a kind of basis of long period precipitation forecast.
出处
《干旱气象》
1998年第1期50-54,共5页
Journal of Arid Meteorology
关键词
厄尔尼诺
宁夏
夏季降水
EI NINO Ningxia Precipitation in Summer
