摘要
二级课题85-04-01-05从非线性科学和Weibull分布出发,提出和引进研究了3种新的单项地震学短期预报指标和一种新的综合预报方法。对于一些老的指标和综合预报方法,也朝着缩短预报期(6个月以内)和更加定量化的方向作了进一步研究。 课题对于华北和川滇地区,分别采取等间距时空扫描,或固定地震带(区)作时间扫描的办法,寻找和提炼单项指标,研制预报规则和综合预报方案,进行内符检验。为地震活动成带性好与成带性不明显的地区分别提供了两种不同的思路、方法与软件。 与以往相比,不仅预报期缩短了,而且预报效能也有所提高。
Based on non-linear science and Weibull distribution, 3 new indexes and a new comprehensive prediction method are proposed and studied in the project 85-04-01-05. Some old indexes and comprehensive prediction methods are also studied for shortening the prediction period.In North China and Yunnan-Sichuan region, authors studied some indexes of the short-term and comprehensive prediction methods by using the equal-interval temporal and spatial scanning, or by temporal scanning for fixed seismic zones. Some statistical test has been made also. The results indicate that the prediction efficiency is improved.
出处
《地震》
CSCD
北大核心
1995年第S1期88-100,共13页
Earthquake
关键词
短期预报
指标
综合预报
方法
Short-term earthquake prediction , Index, Comprehensive earthquake prediction, Method
