摘要
本文讨论了北京地区百余年气温的变化特征，依据加法模型理论，提出了一种气候诊断和预测方法─—逐步回归多重因子方法，其优点在于将序列的周期因子、谱成分及外界气候振动因子同时引入回归模型中。这一方法，对单序列的气候诊断和预测具有明显效果。
The features of temperature variation in Beijing in last 100 years are discussedin this paper. According to the additive method theory, a multiple regression method with factors for climatic diagnosis and prediction is Proposed. The advantageof this method is that the periodic factors, spectral components, and forcing climatic oscilation factors can be introduced into the regression equation simultaneously.This method gives satisfactory results in climatic diagnosis and prediction of singleserIes.
出处
《大气科学》
CSCD
北大核心
1994年第S1期820-825,共6页
Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences
关键词
气温
诊断
预测
climatic diagnosis
periodic factor
climatic prediction.
