摘要
本文在总结新中国成立以来中国地质灾害基本情况的基础上,参照系统工程理论与方法,建立以综合灾度为指标的地质灾害综合评价的系统层次结构模型和计算的数学模型;以经纬度2.5°×2.5°为计算单元,计算得出不同地区的地质灾害程度指数和综合灾度指数;以此为基础,分析了中国地质灾害区域分布规律和发展趋势。
China's geological disasters may be broadly classified into 8 categories and 25 kinds.In the recent four decades, more than forty thousand events of sudden geological disasters in eluding two thousand catastrophic ones have taken place in China, causing an annual economic loss ranging between 3 and 15 billion Yuan.Geological disasters constitute a relatively integral and independent system which consists of many-sided factors. The analytic hierarchy processing approach can be used to analyse and assess the geological disaster system based on the theory of systems engineering, because the geological disaster system, like other common comples systems, has great indeterminate and hierarchical characteristics.The process of analysis and assessment of the geo-disaster system includs three basic procedures: firstly, to develop hierarchical structure model and mathematic model of computation for the aggregative extent of disaster damage based on the characteristics of the geo-disaster system; secondly, to calculate the index of the aggregative extent of disaster damage for geo-disasters in a 2.5 ° by 2.5 ° (longitude by latitude) gridcell size; thirdly, on the basis of the first two procedures, to analyse the basic features of China's geological disasters in the light of the settings of geological disasters.The results of the analysis and evaluation have shown that geo-disasters are widespread within China, but show great regional differences. From the inland to the littoral zone, the aggregative extent of disaster damage continuously increases. The aggregative extent of disaster damage of the southeastern region is over 2. In this region the areas around the Bohai Sea, the lower Yangtze plain and Taiwan Island are the serious potential disaster areas with an indicator of 5. The western region is a weak disaster region with a low extent of disaster damage between 1 and 2. In a word, the development of China's geo-disasters tends to become increasingly serious. In the future, the geo-disasters will be further develop in most areas of China, and especially the geo-disasters' potential danger will be very great in the regions of the loess plateau, hilly areas of Sichuan, Yunnan and the western part of Guangxi, and Hainan Island.
出处
《地球学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
1993年第Z1期139-154,共16页
Acta Geoscientica Sinica
