摘要
本文根据我国双季稻主产区南方1O省(市)双季早稻的产量和面积资料,分析了我国双季早稻生产的地区分布和产量变化规律。应用模糊聚类方法,将我国10个双季早稻生产省(市)分为四个区;根据谐波分析,认为我国双季早稻产量的变化有明显的准两年及其倍数周期;应用积分回归方法,分析了影响我国双季早稻生产的关键气象因子。我们在产量预报业务化试验期间,应用周期分析、环流模式、温度降水模式及专家系统等多种方法预报双季早稻产量,得到了较好的预报效果。
Based on the data of yield and planting area of early rice from ten provinces of China,thespatial distribution and historical variation of early rice production were analyzed.By using fuzzyclassification method,the planting areas of ten provinces (city) can be divided into four parts.Ac-cording to the harmonic analysis,the quasi-biennial fluctuation and its multiple periods werefound;and the influences of temperature and precipitation on early rice yield were analyzed byuse of regression integral method.During the period of experimental yield prediction operationsfrom 1987 to 1990,the better results were obtained by synthesizing the methods of the harmonicanalysis,atmospheric model,temperature-precipitation model and experts system.
出处
《应用气象学报》
CSCD
北大核心
1991年第4期401-407,共7页
Journal of Applied Meteorological Science
