摘要
综合考虑企业的可控因素、不可控因素和产品市场的变化,对产品销售的定性预测方法和定量预测方法进行了系统的分析与比较,并结合实例对不同方法建立的数学模型的预测精度进行了分析与比较。以期运用基于时间序列下的数学模型来准确预测新产品未来销售额,从而有计划、有组织地启动企业的可控因素,进行正干扰,减缓产品销售衰退期的到来。
Systematic analysis and comparison were made between qualitative and quantitative prediction methods of product sales with consideration of controllable and controllable factors and changes in product market.Prediction accuracy of mathematical models set up with different methods was also analyzed with examples.Mathematical models based on time series are expected to accurately predict future sales of new products,thus controllable factors of business can be used in a planned way to slow down the arrival of sales recession.
出处
《昆明冶金高等专科学校学报》
CAS
2011年第5期66-71,86,共7页
Journal of Kunming Metallurgy College
关键词
时间序列
销售预测
定性预测
定量预测
time series
sales forecast
qualitative prediction
quantitative prediction
