摘要
基于长江源区1959-2008年月平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、相对湿度、降水量、风速和日照时数等气候要素资料,应用修订的Thornthwaite Memorial模型计算了50a被净初级生产力,分析其年际和年代际变化特征及其对气候变化的响应.结果表明:1959-2008年间,研究区年NPP变化呈显著上升趋势,NPP变化曲线线性拟合倾向率在97.901～197.01kg.hm-2.(10a)-1之间,20世纪90年代后NPP较高.20世纪60年代和80年表现为"冷干型"气候特征,NPP偏少0.2%～3.1%;2001-2008年均为"暖湿型"气候特征,NPP偏多10.4%～11.7%.影响长江源区NPP变化的主要气候因子是降水量、最大蒸散量和平均最低气温."暖湿型"气候对植被净生产力增加最有利,长江源区NPP可增加7.6%～10.3%.而"冷干型"气候造成植被净生产力下降.若2050年在"暖湿型"气候情景下,长江源区未来NPP较多年平均值增加8%～25%.
Based on the data of monthly mean air temperature,maximum and minimum air temperature,relative humidity,precipitation,wind speed and sunshine duration over the source regions of the Yangtze River during 1959-2008,the net primary productivity（NPP） was computed with revised Thornthwaite Memorial Model.The annual variation and the seasonal difference of NPP were analyzed.Also the response of net primary productivity to climate change was discussed.It is found that during 1959-2008,the annual NPP had a increased trend,with a linear fitting rate of 97.901～197.01 kg·（hm）-2·（10a）-1,a higher NPP appeared after the 1990s.Cold and dry climate occurred in the 1960s and 1980s,when the NPP was 0.2%～3.1% less than the average annual NPP.Warm and wet climate appeared in 2001-2008,when the NPP was 10.4%～11.7% more than the average annual NPP.The mainly factors which influence the NPP are precipitation,the maximum evapotranspiration and the average minimum temperature.The warm and wet climate would benefit the NPP with an average increment of 7.6%～10.3% over the source regions of the Yangtze River,while the cold and dry climate would have an adverse impact on the NPP with an average reduction of yield.The future climate over the source regions of the Yangtze River will become warm and moist,and it is inferred that the NPP will increase by 8%～25% in 2050.
出处
《冰川冻土》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第6期1286-1293,共8页
Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology
基金
国家重大科学研究计划(2012CB955304)
国家公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201106029
GYHY200806021)
国家自然科学基金重点项目(40830957)
甘肃省气象局第五批"十人计划"项目
中国气象局气候变化专项(280200S011C00)
干旱气象科学研究基金项目(IAM201111)资助
关键词
净初级生产力
气候变化
响应
长江源区
net primary productivity
climate change
Responses
source regions of the Yangtze River
