基于分位数回归的我国R＆D经费投入影响因素的动态研究被引量：12

A Dynamic Analysis of Influence Factors on China's R&D Investment Based on the Quantile Regression Model

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摘要针对我国R&D投入较少,R&D强度较低的现状,在对影响我国R&D投入因素进行假设分析的基础上,利用逐步回归方法对相关影响因素进行了筛选,得出经济发展水平、政府科技投入和产业结构是影响我国科技投入的主要因素,然后利用分位数回归模型对我国R&D投入在不同分位点上各影响因素的作用进行了详细的研究,研究发现政府科技投入的影响较稳定,随R&D投入的增多经济发展水平对其的影响在逐渐减少,而产业结构对其的影响则在逐渐增大,最后在此基础上提出了提高我国R&D投入的相关政策建议. Our R＆D investment is less and R＆D intensity is low, these conditions have strictly limited our innovational capability. The paper uses stepwise least squares regression to determine the major factors based on what-if of the influence factors about Chinese R＆D investment, then uses quantile regression model to study the dynamic changes of their impact on R＆D investment on different quantile. We find that the influence of government R＆D investment is more stable. With the increase in R＆D investment, the effect of economic development is gradually reducing and the effect of industrial structure is gradually increasing. Based on these, the paper has some advices about the policy of increasing R＆D investment.

作者谢兰云王维国

机构地区东北财经大学管理科学与工程学院东北财经大学数学与数量经济学院东北财经大学经济计量与预测研究中心

出处《数学的实践与认识》 CSCD 北大核心 2012年第2期43-52,共10页 Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基金辽宁省优秀人才支持计划项目(2008RC15) 国家自然科学基金项目(71171035) 教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目(10YJC790223 11YJC790119)阶段性研究成果

关键词 R&D R&D强度分位数回归影响因素 R＆D R＆D intensity quantile regression influence factor

分类号 G322 [文化科学] O212.1 [理学—概率论与数理统计]

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