摘要
从人口均衡发展的角度对人口转变理论进行了研究,认为人口转变是由低级人口均衡转变为高级人口均衡的跃迁过程,人口"总量相对静止、结构高位稳定"是最理想的人口发展状态。中国人口转变经历了超前经济发展的"人口转变"和与经济互动发展的"后人口转变"两个阶段,人口转变过程中需跨越"高少儿抚养"和"高老年赡养"的两次陷阱。稳定适度低生育水平和提升人口素质是未来根本任务,从较短期看总和生育率保持在1.8左右,从中长期看总和生育率回归更替水平,是"后人口转变"时期的战略目标,也是促进人口长期均衡发展的必由之路。
This article develops a balanced- population development approach to the demographic transition theory, arguing that demographic transition is a process in which societies move from a lowlevel population balance to a highlevel population balance. China has experienced two phases of demographic transition： a stage in which the demographic transition occurred ahead of economic development and a stage in which it interacts with economic development; and China needs to stride across two traps in the demographic transition process： a ＂high - child - dependency＂ tarp and a ＂high old - dependency＂ trap. Stabilizing moderately low fertilily levels and enhancing qualily of the population are among the fundamental tasks for the future.
出处
《人口研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第1期45-51,共7页
Population Research
关键词
人口转变
后人口转变
人口均衡发展
Demographic Transition, Post-Demographic Transition, Balanced Population Development
